Geri
The EU Commission's ‘European Economic Forecasts Spring 2025’ report has been published. Following the recent trade tensions with the United States, the European Union (EU) Commission has lowered its economic growth forecast for the Eurozone from 1.3 percent to 0.9 percent this year and from 1.6 percent to 1.4 percent next year. Among the headlines of the report titled ‘Moderate Growth Amid Global Economic Uncertainty’ were that the EU economy started 2025 stronger than expected, this year's growth will be moderate, and growth is expected to accelerate in 2026 despite increasing global policy uncertainty and trade tensions. However, the EU economy is forecast to grow by 1.1 percent in 2025 and 1.5 percent in 2026, while the Eurozone economy is forecast to grow by 0.9 percent in 2025 and 1.4 percent in 2026. In the previous ‘autumn’ report of the EU Commission, it was predicted that the EU would grow by 1.5 percent in 2025 and 1.8 percent in 2026; the Eurozone would grow by 1.3 percent in 2025 and 1.6 percent in 2026. According to the latest report, the growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 were revised downwards. The growth forecast for the Eurozone was reduced to 0.4 percent for 2025 and 0.2 percent for 2026. ‘In today's forecast, the growth outlook has been revised significantly downwards. This is due to the weakening global trade outlook and high uncertainty about trade policy.’ It is also estimated that Austria will shrink by 0.3 percent, Germany will not grow, France will grow by 0.6 percent, Italy by 0.7 percent and Spain by 2.6 percent this year, while Germany will grow by 1.1 percent, France by 1.3 percent, Italy by 0.9 percent and Spain by 2 percent next year. It was stated that the inflation rate this year will be 2.3 percent in the EU and 2.1 percent in the Eurozone; in 2026, this rate will decrease to 1.9 percent in the EU and 1.7 percent in the Eurozone. On 2 April, it was emphasised that the tariff increases announced on 2 April and the subsequent suspension of tariffs due to financial reactions changed the balance of the global economy. ‘However, tariffs remain at a high level and will inevitably result in a gradual reduction in US-China trade flows. The EU, the world's most open economy, is feeling the strain. Weak economic expansion in global markets will inevitably slow export growth.’ In the report, it was pointed out that the risks in the economic outlook are on the downside and the following statements were made: ‘Further fragmentation of global trade may reduce growth and increase inflationary pressures again.’
The Commission report also made evaluations about Türkiye . The Turkish economy is expected to grow by 2.8 percent in 2025 and 3.5 percent in 2026. The decline is expected to continue due to tight monetary and fiscal policy and lower energy prices. In the report, it was stated that the budget deficit is also expected to decrease and public debt will remain moderate.
European Union (EU) Commissioner for Economic Affairs Valdis Dombrovskis said at a press conference in Brussels: ‘The EU economy is showing resilience in an environment of high trade tensions and increasing global uncertainty. The risks to the outlook remain to the downside. We must therefore take decisive steps to improve our competitiveness within the EU.’
