Foreign trade is indicative of a country's growth as well as its development. Growing economy does not mean that every country is developing. If growth and development are based on production, then we can talk about a healthy economy. In addition, the added value created in foreign trade also reveals the state of the country's economy.
A growth model based on consumption with hot money coming to the country will hold you for a while. And when the money runs out or goes away, the danger bells start ringing.
Hot money is like drugs. It's addictive, and the more it gives, the more it wants. In other words, it is important for what purpose the money that will come from outside comes. If you can convince the incoming investor and the money to invest permanently, then the incoming capital loses its volatility and becomes domestic. Our main problem is that we can't do it.
Giving up by Volkswagen, which is expected to invest in Turkey, is a negative situation for our economy. When it is said that the factory will be opened, those who make a wedding feast now do not get a word out of their mouths on the subject. And those who talk make funny statements like not we but Volkswagen lost.
These days, the rise of the stock market in Istanbul and the praise of foreign organizations for the strong TL are also the result of hot money coming to Turkey going to the stock market. Don't let this mislead anyone and put them in danger. Hot money coming to the stock market is just so that investments in the stock market do not lose value. Hot money has no religious faith. As soon as he wins, he goes back to where he came from without looking back. Hundreds of small investors who hang out behind him and invest look on with tears. The situation is that simple. The main thing is permanent foreign capital and investment. It seems unlikely that this will happen in the short term.
Turkey today gives a foreign trade deficit. In fact, the exact equivalent of this concept is that Turkey has loss in foreign trade. We'd rather call it loss but not deficit. If your import is more than your export, it is called loss. Moreover, if 80 percent of your export is dependent on imports this loss is even more dangerous. In other words, if the countries you are fighting stop slow down or reduce the supply of raw materials to you, your production and, accordingly, your export will decrease. That's when you're finished. This is unfortunately happening in the real sector